Parliament to vote on FOBTs next week, GVC shares fly
Shares in GVC Holdings were galloping higher on Friday after the confirmation that a parliamentary vote will be held next week on legislation to crack down on fixed-odds betting terminals.
Entain
784.20p
16:40 26/04/24
Flutter Entertainment (DI)
14,935.00p
16:40 26/04/24
FTSE 100
8,139.83
17:09 26/04/24
FTSE 250
19,824.16
16:59 26/04/24
FTSE 350
4,470.09
16:59 26/04/24
FTSE All-Share
4,423.59
17:14 26/04/24
Travel & Leisure
7,572.38
16:59 26/04/24
William Hill
271.80p
09:58 22/04/21
The vote has been brought forward, which is very positive news for GVC shares because, if the legislation to limit the maximum wagers on FOBTs to £2 is approved, it will be enacted before the 28 March 2019 deadline that would have required GVC to pay a large lump sum to Ladbrokes Coral shareholders as part of a clause of the acquisition earlier this year.
GVC issued securities known as contingent value rights (CVRs) as part of the March takeover deal and would have had to pay £676m, representing around 18% of GVC’s market cap, to Ladbrokes Coral shareholders if the law had not been passed at this time.
"Given the cross-parliamentary approval there has been for this gaming machine regulation, we expect the vote to be uncontentious," said analysts at Citigroup.
Barclays said that it was rather perverse that GVC’s shareholders have been waiting for this news, given the material negative impact this change in law will have on cash flows from the Ladbrokes business.
Barclays also noted that GVC said it will announce something regarding the contract between Ladbrokes and Playtech, which analysts believe could be "an early termination of the contract thus bringing forward the synergies from the contract at least one year earlier than expected".
Furthermore, after GVC chief executive Kenny Alexander seemed bullish on the latest quarterly conference call, recent Oddschecker data suggests gross win margins in the fourth quarter so far "have actually been slightly better than average", the analysts we see the potential for an upgrade.
Shares in Paddy Power Betfair and William Hill were also higher on Friday.
The unstable macro and political environment notwithstanding, Investec analysts said they believe the fall in the GVC share price in recent months "is considerably overdone", even after cutting its share price target to 1000p from 1250p after forecasts were amended to reflect the earlier imposition of FOBT laws, the increase in remote gaming duty and US expansion plans.
"The change in our target price reflects an increase in the valuation of the group’s US assets, and a decrease in valuation as a result of lost FCF from the earlier imposition of regulation and a sector derating. We also reflect the loss of run rate FCF from the Triennial Review and RGD increase, discounted onerous lease obligations as a result of shop closures and unrealised synergistic benefits."