Market buzz: European stocks rebound, dollar surging
1500: The Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge for March slipped from 131.0 for the preceding month to 127.7, versus economists' forecasts calling for a reading of 131.0.
"Both headline indexes, and the components, remain very elevated, but they probably are starting to feel the initial impact of the correction in stock prices, said Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
"Reported confidence likely will dip further over the next couple of months, but the numbers have been hugely overstating spending for some time - because income growth has not kept up with the rise in confidence - so a correction would not necessarily signal a slowdown in spending growth. Fundamentally, the consumer remains in decent shape."
1429: According to one report, the US will publish the list of Chinese goods that will be subject to trade measures under Article 301 in a few hours.
1400: Standard&Poor's CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index jumped by 0.8% month-on-month in January, lifting the year-on-year rate of increase from 6.3% in December to 6.4% for last month.
1142: After the EC sentiment survey its looking a little light on the data side today, with US consumer confidence the only notable release and some Fedspeak from Raphael Bostic, a voter on the FOMC this year.
"Political stories are likely to continue to dominate financial markets this week in the absence of any major planned economic events," says analyst Craig Erlam at Oanda. "The calendar is looking much quieter than it did this time a week ago, putting increased focus on the developments on trade and other matters. Increased tensions between Russia and the West is another story that will continue to be monitored but hasn’t had much of a market impact, if any."
He adds that Theresa May will be delighted with the backing from the UK's allies in the West, with more than 100 'diplomats' expelled by number of countries, including 60 from the US, in response to the evidence offered by the UK in relation to the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter.
Erlam says this threatens to increase geopolitical tensions: "Investors will be monitoring the situation closely to see whether the situation develops into something that could rattle the markets."
1125: Investment platforms can be a convenient way to hold several different investments in one place, shares, investment trusts, unit trusts, ETFs etc. The Association of Investment Companies, the trade body for trusts, has launched a comparison tool to try and help retail investors and advisers compare what the different platforms offer.
There is a comparison tools for retail investors and a separate one for financial advisers, with both including guidance such as a series of 'heatmaps' to show how much an investor might pay to hold and trade investment companies depending on the size of their portfolio.
1112: Ahead of the US open, investor sentiment is remaining positive in Europe. Market gyrations remain largely confined to equities, noted rates and currency analysts at TD Securities, with the EuroStoxx-50 up 1.5% following solid gains across Asia but yields little changed, however, with 10Y bunds yielding 52 bps.
The dollar is trading on a mixed footing against its major counterparts. The pound is down 0.7%. The Korean won, up 1% tops the leader board today amid reports North Korea's leader could be in Beijing.
"Despite today's better tone, we remain cautious. Market confidence remains fragile and vulnerable to adverse headlines and further disruption," says TD.
1058: Copper prices are up to $6,695 per tonne vs $6,577/t yesterday on the LME.
"Hopes that a trade war between top metals consumers China and the United States may be avoided inverted recent market fears which have been drawing base metal prices lower," says SP Angel. "Concerns surrounding a potential trade war eased as senior US officials are negotiating with China to cut tariffs on imported cars, allow foreign majority ownership of financial services firms, and buy more US-made semiconductors to avoid plans to slap tariffs on a host of Chinese goods."
LME copper prices pulled away from a three-month low recorded on Monday following a late week surge in global inventories. Copper inventories in LME warehouses climbed 35,000 tonnes (~10%) to 352,750 tonnes. On-warrant stocks have also nearly doubled this year, climbing to their most elevated since September 2016.
Yesterday, workers at Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile reached an agreement on a new labour contract, defusing the threat of striking action.
“The risk of copper supply disruptions due to strikes is still high as workers demand higher wages while mining companies are in austerity mode and strongly against locking in higher fixed costs in perpetuity”, according to analysts at Jefferies.
1040: The EC’s economic sentiment indicator for the UK fell to 105.3 in March, from 109.5 in February (100 represents the 1990-2017 average). Confidence in the services and construction sectors also edged down, but improved slightly among consumers and retailers.
"The drop in the ESI to its lowest level since September 2016 primarily reflects a slump in confidence among manufacturers back to its long-run average," said Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Growth in manufacturers’ order books has slowed now that nearly two years have elapsed since sterling’s big depreciation."
0851: Tuesday's London opening market report finds only one FTSE 100 stock was in negative territory on Tuesday morning as markets swung from pessimism to optimism about the chances of a global trade war. By 0845 GMT, the FTSE 100 was up 95.91 points or 1.39% to 6,984.60 after closing lower the previous day as a late bout of selling clipped the wings of what had been a mostly positive day.
0823: The FTSE 100 is on the up, led by Ferguson on the back of results and its promise of a big special dividend, and GSK's deal to buy Novartis out of its consumer healthcare joint venture.
0756: Overnight US stocks had a grand old time. The S&P enjoyed its best day since August 2015, coming off the back of what was their worst weekly performance since January 2016. The positive trigger was reports of progress in behind the scenes talks between China and the US, with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin saying talks were ongoing between US and Chinese officials in a bid to stop a trade war. Mnuchin said he was “hopeful” of a truce between the two sides.