German exports unexpectedly rise in March
German exports unexpectedly rose in March, according to data released by Destatis on Friday.
Exports were up 1.5% from February, beating expectations for a 0.3% decline. On the year, exports rose 1.9%.
Meanwhile, imports were up 0.4% on the month in March versus expectations of a 0.5% increase. On the year, they were up 4.5%.
Germany's seasonally-adjusted trade surplus came in at €20bn, against expectations of €18.2bn, while the headline non-seasonally adjusted trade surplus increased to €22.7bn from a revised €18bn in February, coming in above consensus forecasts of €20.0bn.
Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said this was a "decent" finish to the first quarter, though it is probably not enough to change the story that net exports were a small drag on GDP growth at the start of the year.
"Both imports and exports have accelerated at the start of the year, indicating that overall trade volumes are picking up after last year’s sharp slowdown, but today’s ominous news of a further escalation in the US-China trade spat raises questions about the sustainability of these data. We see a similar message from the new orders and sentiment data, warning that the recent uptick in export growth won’t be sustained.
"A counterargument goes that German, and EZ exporters, will benefit from a slowdown in trade between the US and China - due to substitution effects - but that is difficult to see in the data; German trade numbers remain tightly correlated with global trade volumes.
"Looking ahead, we think net exports will be flat quarter-on-quarter in Q2, though we need a few data points to make a more accurate forecast."