Tuesday preview: Theresa May's Brexit speech in the spotlight
Prime Minister Theresa May takes centre stage on Tuesday as she speaks on the government’s plans for triggering Article 50 of the formal Brexit process.
Ahead of her speech, the Sunday Times reported that May will indicate that she plans to pursue a ‘hard’ Brexit and quit the European Union’s single market to gain more control over migration and the country’s laws.
However, May’s spokesperson told Reuters on Monday that the report was “speculation”.
Worries of a hard Brexit sent the pound tumbling at the start of the week and the currency looks set for a further fall if May so much as hints at leaving the single market in her speech.
ETX Capital analyst Neil Wilson said: “If the UK is heading straight out of the single market, a clean break with no transition deal, the pound could drop a lot more. Sterling’s fall, though around 20% since June, has not gone far enough to really reflect the UK leaving the single market. Or, we might witness a significant reversal in recent pound falls if there is something positive to shout about.”
May has previously said the government plans to invoke Article 50 by the end of March but several court cases could push back the deadline.
The government is waiting on the outcome of an Supreme Court appeal on needing parliamentary approval before triggering Article 50.
Another impending court hearing has argued the government cannot leave the single market without triggering Article 127 of the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement and says it must seek approval from parliament. Lawyers of the case have said they believe Article 50 does not mean leaving the EEA. The EEA extends the single market's tariff-free trade in goods to countries like Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
Throwing another spanner in the works, a snap election in Northern Ireland could further stall Brexit.
The election comes after Sinn Féin refused to nominate a new Deputy First Minister following the resignation of Martin McGuinness last week, triggering the collapse of the power sharing government.
If the Supreme Court rules that parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should have a vote on triggering Article 50, the absence of an administration at Stormont could delay the process.
The Prime Minister’s office has yet to confirm what time May’s speech will take place on Tuesday, but media reports have stated 1145 GMT.
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