Week Ahead: Fed and BoE policy announcements in focus; bank results eyed
Next week will see interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the release of the latest US non-farm payrolls report, while on the earnings front, banks will be in focus as both Lloyds and Barclays are set to report.
All eyes will be on the US Federal on Wednesday as it makes its latest policy announcement.
ING noted that several analysts have made the case for the Fed going early and aggressively to head off the risks to US growth with a 50 basis points move next week.
"However, recent firm data has put pay to that view with the implied probability of such action drifting lower over the past couple of weeks. St Louis Fed President James Bullard, who is perceived to be one of the most dovish members of the FOMC having voted for a rate cut in June, has also downplayed that prospect," ING said.
"He said last Friday that ‘I’d like to go 25bp at the upcoming meeting’. Moreover, we have to remember that at the June FOMC meeting, the median forecast of FOMC members had no rate cuts for this year and only one for next. The newsflow hasn't deteriorated over the intervening period, so based on this we expect just a precautionary 25bp rate cut next Wednesday."
As far as the BoE rate announcement on Thursday is concerned, no change is expected.
CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson said: "Since the May inflation report it has been notable that most areas of the UK economy have slowed significantly, however there does appear to be some evidence of a pickup in economic activity in June and July.
"Whether this week’s inflation report will reflect this is another matter, however it is inescapable that the economic outlook has softened considerably since the Bank of England last ran its eye over the UK economy in May. Various policymakers have continued to insist that a rate hike is more likely than a rate cut in the medium term, and while that may well be true, that is very much predicated on some form of Brexit solution.
"This seems unlikely in the short term, and with the appointment of Boris Johnson as UK Prime Minister the noise levels around the prospect of a no deal Brexit has gone up a notch."
On Friday's non-farm payrolls report, RBC Capital Markets said: "While job gains will likely decelerate on the heels of a quite robust 224k last month, something close to the trend pace of about 170k still seems likely for July. The main drivers are unchanged. Job openings continue to handily outpace the number of officially unemployed by about 1.5 million and jobless claims remain at historical lows when adjusted for the size of the labour force. This, coupled with improved sentiment more recently (de-escalating trade tensions, Fed easing) should continue to drive job gains at a well-north-of-potential pace near-term."
On the corporate side of things, Barclays and Lloyds will report their interim numbers next week.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said that on a headline basis, analysts will look at two numbers for Barclays: pre-tax profit and the dividend. "In terms of the headline pre-tax profit number, Barclays made £1.7 billion on a stated basis in the first half of 2018, while the underlying profit (excluding litigation, conduct costs, restructuring and loan impairments) was £3.7 billion. In the second quarter only Barclays made £1.9 billion last year, but the figure is a pretty volatile one," he said.
"Barclays paid a 2.5p-a-share interim and a 4p final for a total of 6.5p in 2018. Analysts expect 7.4p for the total this year so they will be looking for a hike in the interim payment."
As far as Lloyds is concerned, UBS said it is forecasting 2Q19 adjusted pre-tax profit of £1.9bn, including above-the-line remediation costs of £168m.
Lloyds results are due on Wednesday, while Barclays is slated to report on Thursday.
Monday July 29
INTERIMS
Globaldata, Hammerson, Hiscox Limited (DI), Keller Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Compass Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Marble Point Loan Financing Limited NPV
GMS
Fastjet
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
PayPoint
AGMS
Active Energy Group, Hansa Trust, JPMorgan Japan Smaller Companies Trust, National Grid, Remote Monitored Systems , Sirius Real Estate Ltd.
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Cranswick, Gama Aviation
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Mediclinic International , Syncona Limited NPV, Vertu Motors
Tuesday July 30
INTERIMS
Aggreko, Centrica, Elementis, Greggs, Hutchison China Meditech Ltd, Jupiter Fund Management , Low & Bonar, LSL Property Services, Provident Financial, Seplat Petroleum Development Company (DI), Spectris
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (EU) (10:00)
Import Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Industrial Confidence (EU) (10:00)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (15:00)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (13:30)
Personal Income (US) (13:30)
Personal Spending (US) (13:30)
Services Confidence (EU) (10:00)
FINALS
Games Workshop Group, NWF Group
ANNUAL REPORT
JPMorgan Euro Small Co. Trust
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI)
AGMS
1Spatial, Albion Enterprise VCT, All Asia Asset Capital Limited (DI), EIH Plc, Elektron Technology, EPE Special Opportunities Limited (DI), Lekoil Ltd (DI), Mitie Group, Reabold Resources, Rose Petroleum, Syncona Limited NPV, TMT Investments, Trader Media East Ltd GDR (Reg S), Ukrproduct Group Ltd, ULS Technology , Volex
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Reckitt Benckiser Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Discoverie Group, Fidelity China Special Situations , TR Property Inv Trust
Wednesday July 31
INTERIMS
4Imprint Group, BAE Systems, Countrywide, Dignity, Direct Line Insurance Group, Ibstock , Indivior, International Personal Finance, Intu Properties, Just Eat , Lloyds Banking Group, Man Group, Rentokil Initial, Restore, Serco Group, Smith & Nephew, Smurfit Kappa Group, St James's Place, StatPro Group, Taylor Wimpey
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
CC Japan Income & Growth Trust, European Investment Trust
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
BMO Private Equity Trust, Ediston Property Investment Company, Middlefield Canadian Income PCC, Schroder Income Growth Fund, TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Gross Domestic Product (EU) (10:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
Q2
Indivior, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (ATT) GDR (Reg S), Smurfit Kappa Group
FINALS
Angle, DWF Group , Hargreaves Services
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Helios Underwriting, Record, TMT Investments
AGMS
Cropper (James), Gabelli Value Plus Trust , Griffin Mining Ltd., Halfords Group, Hibernia Reit , Integumen, Mind Gym, Polar Capital Holdings, St James House , System1 Group
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
3i Group, Mitchells & Butlers, Next
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GFK Consumer Confidence (00:01)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Amigo Holdings, BMO Global Smaller Companies, Edinburgh Inv Trust, Helios Underwriting, Record, Stobart Group Ltd., Tate & Lyle, Xpediator
Thursday August 01
INTERIMS
Barclays, British American Tobacco, Coats Group, Convatec Group , Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Eurocell , FBD Holdings, Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Intertek Group, London Stock Exchange Group, Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Merlin Entertainments , Mondi, Rio Tinto, Royal Dutch Shell 'A', RPS Group, RSA Insurance Group, Schroders, Spirent Communications, Standard Chartered, UK Commercial Property Reit Limited, Vivo Energy
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BBA Aviation 5% Cum Prf, ITE Group, WH Smith
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Blackrock Throgmorton Trust, Globalworth Real Estate Investments Limited, Inchcape, Independent Inv Trust, Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT, Maven Income and Growth VCT 5, Relx plc, Tyman
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Mercantile Investment Trust (The)
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
SME Credit Realisation Fund Limited NPV
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (20:30)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
Q2
Royal Dutch Shell 'A'
FINALS
Renishaw
AGMS
7Digital Group , Afritin Mining Limited NPV, Baillie Gifford UK Growth Fund, daVictus
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Next, United Utilities Group
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
CMC Markets, Fuller Smith & Turner, IG Design Group, Latham (James), Mind Gym, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Monks Inv Trust, QinetiQ Group, Triad Group
Friday August 02
INTERIMS
AIREA, BT Group, Essentra, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, Royal Bank of Scotland Group
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Heavitree Brewery, Heavitree Brewery 'A' Shares
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
BMO UK High Income Trust , British Land Company, Scottish Inv Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)
U. of Michigan Confidence (US) (15:00)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
Q2
Royal Bank of Scotland Group
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BMO UK High Income Trust B Shares
AGMS
ADM Energy , Etalon Group GDR (Reg S), Highbridge Multi-Strategy Fund GBP Shares
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Pets at Home Group , Royal Bank of Scotland Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Construction (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aquila Services Group, Aveva Group, B&M European Value Retail S.A. (DI), Brown (N.) Group, Burberry Group, Caffyns, Cake Box Holdings, De La Rue, Henderson Alternative Strategies Trust , Hibernia Reit , Homeserve, iEnergizer Ltd., Norcros, Octopus AIM VCT, Prime People, System1 Group, TalkTalk Telecom Group , Telecom Plus, ULS Technology , Vodafone Group, Wincanton, Workspace Group