Three biggest Scottish cities likely to vote 'no', says bookmaker

Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has predicted some of the biggest cities in Scotland are likely to vote ‘no’ in the independence referendum on Thursday.

The bookmaker has pointed out that poll results are less reliable in the Scottish referendum due to the record turnout expected and changes in demographics, meaning "no polling model can predict what’s going to happen".

A spokesperson for Paddy Power said: “The four big Scottish cities are showing how close this vote is going to be, with the odds predicting three of the four major cities in the region will be going down the ‘no’ route.

“It’s still very much squeaky-bum time for both camps.”

The bookmaker's original odds are set by its traders and then are adjusted as a result of the weight of customers' cash bets.

Traders base their predictions on votes for Westminster, Scottish Parliament and local election results, predominantly using estimates about the percentages of SNP voters who will vote 'yes' and Labour voters who will vote 'yes'.

Individual area demographics such as employment rates are also a factor, with all this research allowing odds-setters to form a betting line to offer odds to punters, with each bet acting as a further mini 'opinion poll'.

According to Paddy Power, Glasgow and Aberdeen remained the closest balanced, with a 'yes' vote at 11/10 and evens respectively, while a vote in favour of 'no' was 4/6 in Glasgow and 8/11 in Aberdeen.

The strongest 'no' vote is in the city of Edinburgh with odds of 1/5, with the bookmaker predicting the strongest victory for the pro-independence movement in Dundee, where a 'yes' win is at 1/20.