Alliance Trust NAV up; warns of 'small recession' post-Brexit

Alliance Trust said first half net asset value rose to 591.4p compared with 545.9p a year earlier although the uncertainty after the UK's decision to leave the EU caused it to underperform against its benchmark.

It also warned that the UK appeared to be headed for a “mild recession as investment and consumption freeze up in the midst of so much uncertainty” after the Brexit vote.

“With global economic growth already fragile, political uncertainty is sure to be a headwind for equity markets. In this uncertain environment we believe a defensive portfolio that is invested in companies that are growing through structural change - rather than those that are dependent on cyclical tailwinds - will be key to investment performance.”

Pre-tax profits jumped to £213m from £36.6m.

Alliance said the quoted equity part of the its portfolio returned 9.5% for the period against the MSCI ACWI benchmark's 12.0% return in the period after the EU referendum result, effectively reversing the outperformance in the five months to May.

“The first half of 2016 has been marked by significant volatility in markets, particularly around the time of the EU Referendum,” Alliance said.

“The NAV was also impacted by a number of other items such as the value of debt and a pension scheme buy in transaction. The combination of these items generated the trust's NAV Total Return of 6.6%, with a Total Shareholder Return (TSR) at 2.6%.”

Alliance said weak investment and consumption for the short, and possibly, medium-term were key risks for the UK economy, which will place further pressure on the already weakened pound.

“The economic outlook for the second half of 2016 appears unclear after the EU Referendum vote. The UK economy appears set for at least a mild recession as investment and consumption freeze up in the midst of so much uncertainty.”

“The question remains as to whether this will spill over into Europe and result in a slowdown across the global economy. The unprecedented nature of the current situation makes forecasting the impact particularly challenging.”

The company also said there were other global political risks to consider, from the US presidential election in November to elections and referendums in China, Germany, France and Italy over the next 18 months.