UK job confidence upbeat in England, weak in rest of UK

UK hiring confidence has hit its lowest levels since 2012 but is positive in England with confidence rising to its highest in 18 months, according to a new study by ManpowerGroup.

The study which collected responses from 2,100 UK employers asked firms whether they intended to hire more workers or cut staff in the coming quarter.

Employers in England reported an outlook of +7%, the strongest figure since the first quarter of 2017. On the other hand the rest of the UK’s employers are less confident with Northern Irish firms reporting a -4% outlook, the lowest figure since mid-2014. In Wales confidence was also down by -8%, an eight year low.

Regarding the English regions, Yorkshire and the Humber continues its optimistic upswing from the last quarter rising 3 points to +11%. The East Midlands also rises by six points and the confidence in the North West and South West remains strong and steady at +9%. The South East and the West Midlands are in line with the English outlook overall at +7%.

The East of England sees a marginal increase at +3% along with London and the North East with both on a +4% rise.

Mark Cahill, managing director at ManpowerGroup UK said: “New analysis reveals the fault lines in the UK jobs market since the Brexit vote two years ago. Just before the Brexit vote, in Q2 2016, England’s outlook was at +7%, Northern Ireland and Scotland were level at +6% and Wales was at +4%. Fast forward to 2018 and the picture is very different. England remains on a relatively rosy +7%, but Wales and Northern Ireland have plummeted into negative territory.”

According to Cahill, Brexit is one of the main reasons that are affecting job confidence and adds: “Wales could be badly hit in the event of a hard Brexit, due to finance making up to 81 of Cardiff’s services sector, and with over 10% of Edinburgh’s population employed in financial services, Scotland is also vulnerable.”

Also, Cahill explains that although there are many jobs still on offer, it often happens that there is a mismatch between the skills they need and the candidates available.

“Changing immigration patterns [due to Brexit] are one driver of this talent mismatch. The number of EU nationals in the labour market fell by 86,000 to 2.28m according to ONS data from August. Many companies are crying out for candidates with French and German language abilities.”