All Brexit scenarios likely to leave Britain worse off, report says

Each of the four Brexit scenarios under consideration by the government would leave Britain worse off and cost hundreds of millions of pounds a week, according to a report.

The government’s preferred option of a bespoke Brexit deal would cost taxpayers £615m a week, the report, commissioned by the Global Future thinktank, found. Polling carried out for the report found the public viewed all scenarios as too costly.

The research by Jonathan Portes, an economics professor at King’s College, London, examined the government’s leaked impact studies of three Brexit scenarios. It extended its analysis to a bespoke deal by using the government’s models and details set out by Theresa May in a speech in March.

The bespoke option would cost a net £40bn in 2033-34 or £615m a week in 2018 prices, Portes calculated. The estimated cost would be 22% of the budget for the NHS at 2018 prices, the research, first reported by the Guardian, showed.

A bespoke deal would cost less than two of the government’s other scenarios – World Trade Organization terms, costing £1.25bn a week, and a free-trade agreement, costing £877m a week – but more than remaining in the European Economic Area, which would cost £262m a week.

Polls tied to the research found the public thought all four possible deals were bad. A bespoke deal was supported by 23% with 77% opposed. Leave voters overwhelmingly said all the options were worse than they had hoped for when voting in the referendum.

Portes said there were no certainties as the government continued to negotiate with the EU before the March 2019 deadline for leaving. He said his figures were “a reasonable stab” at calculating the cost of a bespoke deal in contrast to the “discredited” gain of £350m a week claimed by the Leave campaign.

Portes said: “An informed debate, both in public and in parliament, requires us to have some idea of the consequences of those choices … If we are to decide what sort of Brexit we want, the least we need is a menu, with prices. The government has published its current best estimates. It’s up to us to decide which of these prices is worth paying."