Market overview: Fed in a hard spot as inflation slips

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Sharecast News | 29 Jul, 2015

Updated : 10:25

10:32 According to Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna the 29% over-the-year fall in the CRB commodity index implies that headline consumer price inflation Stateside will slide from 0.1% at present to -0.9% over the next few months - its largest drop since September 2009. On the other hand, core inflation is expected to move towards 2% in the months ahead, making for a tricky policy set-up for the central bank.

1005: Ahead of today's US Fed meeting. the FT's Jamie Chisholm point out how the US five-year break-even rate - an inflation gauge- is back below 1.4% versus 1.83% over the past five years. In late June it was 1.75%. A rebound in oil futures could swiftly change that state of affairs, Chisholm warns. However, "for now, it is contributing to a feeling that global deflationary pressures are building," he adds.

0930: Mortgage approvals in the UK were running at a 66,000 pace in June, as expected by analysts. Net mortgage lending on the other hand edged past forecasts, increasing by £1.2bn (consensus: £1.1bn).

0916: Shares have started the morning higher, alongside similar moves in all risk assets. Barclays and British American Tobacco are near the top of the leaderboard following their most recent set of half-year figures. Acting as a backdrop, all eyes are on the Fed and whether or not it signals that the first rate increase might get pushed back past September. That comes as some analysts warn that headline inflation Stateside might be set for a sharp drop over the coming months. Acting as a backdrop, global company deal-making or so-called M&A activity was set to beat its previous record, set in the summer of 2007, when $944.3bn of transactions were proposed, according to Bloomberg data. FTSE 100 up by 29.03 points to 6,584.31.

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