Possible diplomatic breakthrough as Ukraine contact group adopts 'Steinmeier formula'

Ukraine reportedly agreed overnight to adopt the so-called 'Steinmeier formula', in effect allowing elections in the breakaway region of Donbass and to grant it a special administrative status, possibly paving the way for the resumption of peace talks between Kiev and Moscow.

The apparent breakthrough was reached overnight on Tuesday at a meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

However, remarks by Ukraine's new President, Vladimir Zelensky, following the group's meeting appeared to cast doubt on just how much progress had really been made.

According to Russia's state news agency, TASS, Zelensky's statement that a new law would be passed on a special status for Donbass might "signal Kiev’s drive to disavow its signing of the Steinmeier formula".

In September, aides to the so-called 'Normandy Four', the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, agreed that the text of the Steinmeier formula had to be approved by all members of the Contact Group.

The conflict in Ukraine dates back to at least 2014, when Russia re-annexed Crimea and forces backed by Moscow took up arms against Kiev in Donbass.

Nonetheless, for some observers trace the source of the conflict further back, to at least 2008, when the US administration under George W. Bush backed Ukraine and Georgia's admission into NATO, despite the opposition at least to the former from multiple members of the Atlantic alliance.

There were also others who believed that the drive for Ukraine to join the European Union had played a role, although other countries such as Finland had in the past suceeded in not arousing Russian mistrust by joining the EU but not the Atlantic alliance.

Under the Steinmeier formula, named after former German foreign minister, Frank Walter-Steinmeier, Ukraine's special law on local self-governance would come into effect temporarily on the day of local elections in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk region and turn permanent once the OSCE had confirmed that the elections had been free and fair.

According to a source cited by Russian daily Kommersant, the agreements reached on adopting the Steinmeier formula and the withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian military forces from the region signaled an improved climate for further negotiations.

Sources close to the Russian government told Kommersant that it was now quite possible that a summit of the 'Normandy Four', the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, might take place as soon as October.

However, Ukraine's new President, Vladimir Zelensky, was facing at least some opposition in Ukraine to the adoption of the Steinmeier formula.