Mixed reactions from economists to US March jobs report

Below are excerpts from the research reports sent by some leading economists immediately after the release of Friday's US non-farm payrolls report for March:

“Today’s disappointing non-farm payrolls can’t be blamed on the weather or the shake-out in the oil & gas industry. They are in line with other economic data that show that weak global economic growth and the strong US dollar are having a negative impact on the US economy. This supports our view that the Fed will delay the first rate hike to the final quarter of the year. Note that the FOMC sees a 200K+ figure as a healthy pace of employment growth, but is willing to tolerate a figure between 150K and 200K, as long as various measures of unemployment continue their decline during the course of the year. However, today’s 126k is even below the Fed’s lower bar for payroll growth.” – Rabobank

“All the other labour market indicators that we track point suggest that labour market conditions are still very strong: initial jobless claims are unusually low, the job openings rate is near a record high and the employment indices in the various activity surveys are at robust levels. Accordingly, we very much doubt this is the start of a new slump, like we've seen occasionally before during this recovery.” – Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics

“Even after today’s negative surprise, and including the downward revisions to the January and February numbers, monthly payroll gains have averaged 197,000 in 1Q15. This is still much more than needed to lower the unemployment rate. According to the Atlanta Fed’s Jobs Calculator, the employment gains needed to keep the jobless rate constant is currently 110,000. […] given the above-mentioned threshold estimates, the latest labour market dynamics still seem by far strong enough to push the jobless rate lower in the coming months. But that may not be fast enough, and we have to acknowledge that today’s employment report is grist to the mill of those Fed officials who want to wait for longer with the lift-off.” – Dr.Harm Bandholz, UniCredit Research

“The household survey showed household employment rising by only 34k, but our views on the strength of the household survey are driven by three-month averages given the historical volatility of the series. At 296k, the three-month average gain in employment is more constructive than the 197k reading in the establishment survey, but we interpret both series as sending the same message: labor market conditions are generally robust and, along with economic activity, likely received a boost from falling energy prices.” – Michael Gapen, Barclays