Chinese exports surge amid global PPE boom

Chinese exports have surged following strong global demand for pandemic-related products, official customs data showed on Monday.

Exports in November rose 21.1% year-on-year, the fastest growth since February 2018, up on October’s 11.4% increase and easily beating forecasts. Most analysts had been expecting a 12.0% rise.

The record surge was fuelled primarily by medical equipment, which was ahead 38% year-on-year, and electronics, up 24.8%.

In contrast, imports rose 4.5% year-on-year, which was below forecasts – the consensus was for 6.1% - and marginally down on October’s growth of 4.7%. It remains the third consecutive month of growth, however.

The trade surplus was $75.4bn, the largest on record and well above October’s figure of $58.4bn.

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, said: “We expect this robust performance to continue, with exports benefiting from ongoing strong demand in stay-at-home electronics and personal protective equipment amid a surge in Covid cases in Europe and the US.

“Strong imports reflect the recovery in the demand side of China’s economy, which we think will extend further in the months ahead.

“Overall, firm pre-Christmas demand may explain some of the strength in November exports, but nonetheless, positive readings are likely to be sustained.”

Miguel Chanco, senior Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The stronger outturn was driven to a large extent by shipments to the US, which spiked by a seven-month high of 10.2%. Exports to the EU also rose firmly after three straight months of modest declines.

“All told, these data suggest an element of front-loading to avoid being caught out by potentially stricter restrictions linked to the more intense waves of Covid-19 in both markets.”