Week ahead: UK macro calendar jam-packed; Burberry, Vodafone results eyed
The UK macro calendar is jam-packed next week, with GDP, manufacturing, jobs data, inflation and retail sales figures all slated for release.
The week will kick off with the release of gross domestic product data for September.
RBC Capital Markets said: "The August monthly GDP release left the 3m/3m growth rate at 0.3%, implying that even a modest contraction in GDP in September would still be consistent with GDP growth of 0.4% q/q for Q3 as a whole.
"Now, we note that the monthly GDP data has been more revision-prone of late, but if that expectation does transpire, then it will mark a volatile couple of quarters for the UK economy, with GDP having already swung from a 0.6% q/q advance to a 0.2% q/q contraction the first two quarters of the year.
"The timing effects of the various Brexit deadlines explain the swings in the performance of the economy and they are likely to be evident again this quarter. The PMI surveys suggested that firms resorted to building up stocks to insulate against a ‘hard Brexit’ toward the end of the quarter."
On Tuesday, investors will focus on the release of key UK jobs data, with the ILO unemployment rate, average earnings and claimant count all due. The unemployment rate for September is expected to be unchanged at 3.9%.
Across the pond, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the outlook for the US economy in testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Wednesday.
RBC said that while his testimony usually garners a lot of fanfare, given the proximity to the latest FOMC meeting and the hard signal for a pause that came out of that, this event is likely to prove "much less market-moving than usual".
"Indeed, with the advent of press conferences after every FOMC meeting, these testimonies have lost much of their significance in general," it said.
On the corporate front, trading updates are due from Informa and William Hill on Monday, while second-quarter numbers from Vodafone are out on Tuesday, along with an update from broadcaster ITV and first-half results from Land Securities.
Dutch bank ABN Amro will release its third-quarter results on Wednesday, while first-half numbers from luxury fashion brand Burberry are due on Thursday and French media conglomerate Vivendi will update investors on its third quarter at the end of the week.
As far as Vodafone is concerned, UBS said consensus expects Q2 service revenues to be up 0.2%, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation seen at €7.03bn, implying around 1.5% organic EBITDA growth.
"We expect EBITDA growth to be H2 weighted given strong organic service revenue growth, easier comparables and the phasing of costs (e.g. Spanish football costs)," the bank said.
"We expect organic service revenue trends to continue to see gradual improvement quarter-on-quarter given easier comparables in Spain and South Africa."
UBS also said it expects Vodafone to re-iterate guidance of "low single digit" organic EBITDA growth.
On Burberry, it said: "In our view, among the stocks in the sector Burberry offers the most appealing "turnaround" potential (strong brand, structural cost story, seasoned management team).
"However, the still mixed evidence for the success of Riccardo Tisci's new collections, combined with an increasingly uncertain economic environment and now less favourable regional mix make us cautious in the near term. While the very positive investor bias on the name could leave little room for error."
Monday November 11
INTERIMS
Kainos Group , Tatton Asset Management
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Tandem Group
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Seplat Petroleum Development Company (DI)
FINALS
Beximco Pharmaceuticals Ltd. GDR, Carr's Group, Wey Education
EGMS
Phoenix Spree Deutschland Limited Shs NPV
AGMS
Salt Lake Potash Limited (DI)
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Dignity
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
GDP (Preliminary) (09:30)
GDP (Preliminary) (08:30)
Index of Services (09:30)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Schroder Japan Growth Fund
Tuesday November 12
INTERIMS
Adept Technology Group, Aveva Group, Electrocomponents, Gear4music (Holdings), Land Securities Group, Premier Foods
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Merchants Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
ZEW Survey (EU) - Economic Sentiment (10:00)
ZEW Survey (GER) - Current Situation (10:00)
ZEW Survey (GER) - Economic Sentiment (10:00)
Q3
Arrow Global Group
AGMS
BHP Group, Craneware, Galliford Try, JPMorgan Global Growth & Income, Mid Wynd International Inv Trust, Pacific Horizon Inv Trust, Surface Transforms
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Claimant Count Rate (09:30)
Wednesday November 13
INTERIMS
Renold, Speedy Hire, SSE, Wincanton
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Q3
Valeura Energy Inc NPV (DI)
FINALS
Avon Rubber
AGMS
Genesis Emerging Markets Fund Ltd Ptg NPV, Hays, JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inv Trust, London Finance & Investment Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (09:30)
Producer Price Index (09:30)
Retail Price Index (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inv Trust, Redrow, Strategic Equity Capital
Thursday November 14
INTERIMS
FirstGroup, Mediclinic International , National Grid, NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red, Stobart Group Ltd., Urban Logistics Reit
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Curtis Banks Group
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Airtel Africa , Anpario, Aquila European Renewables Income Fund (GBP), BlackRock Smaller Companies Trust, Bunzl, Burford Capital , First Derivatives, Marks & Spencer Group, ProVen Growth & Income VCT, ProVen VCT, Sainsbury (J), Spire Healthcare Group, System1 Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Anglo Pacific Group, British American Tobacco
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BMO Commercial Property Trust Limited, Civitas Social Housing , GlaxoSmithKline, Honeywell International Inc., ICG Enterprise Trust, Raven Property Group Limited Cum Red Pref, Royal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (16:00)
GDP (Preliminary) (EU) (10:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Q3
Telecom Egypt SAE GDS (Regs)
GMS
Societatea Energetica Electrica SA GDR (Reg S)
FINALS
Tracsis
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Triple Point Vct 2011 A
AGMS
Aeorema Communications, Byotrol, DFS Furniture, Eagle Eye Solutions Group, Genus, Infrastructure India, Jupiter European Opportunities Trust, New Star Investment Trust, Picton Property Income Ltd, Ricardo
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Regional REIT Limited, Safestore Holdings
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Retail Sales (09:30)
RICS Housing Market Survey (00:01)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Hansard Global, Joules Group, JPMorgan Mid Cap Inv Trust
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aberdeen Frontier Markets Investment Company, Aberdeen Standard Asia Focus , Baillie Gifford Japan Trust, Brand Architekts Group, Genesis Emerging Markets Fund Ltd Ptg NPV, Litigation Capital Management Limited (DI), MJ Gleeson , Oleeo
Friday November 15
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Cameron Investors Trust , Coats Group, Kerry Group 'A' Shares, Menzies(John), Octopus Titan VCT , Sagicor Financial Corporation Limited (DI), Warpaint London
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)
Business Inventories (US) (15:00)
Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:15)
Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)
Industrial Production (US) (14:15)
Retail Sales (US) (13:30)
Q3
Afarak Group (DI)
FINALS
Future
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bioventix, Hays
AGMS
Adamas Finance Asia Limited (DI), Berkeley Energia Limited (DI), Kier Group
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bioventix, Dechra Pharmaceuticals, Grit Real Estate Income Group Limited NPV (DI), Hays, Smiths Group, Wilmington