Wednesday preview: US factory gate prices, PageGroup in focus

Ahead of the US consumer price report for September, on Thursday, all eyes tomorrow will be on the release of the latest wholesale price data in the States referencing that same month.

The figures would come close on the heels of what appeared to be a breakout in longer-term Treasury note yields from their multi-year trading ranges over the past few sessions.

They would also arrive as analysts were under particular pressure to nail down and better anticipate the exact contours of economic growth in the US over the next couple of years.

According to the latest projections from the International Monetary Fund, the US economy was expected to expand at a pace of 2.9% in 2019, slowing down to a 2.5% clip in 2020.

However, some observers, such as Mohammed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, believed the international watchdog was being too pessimistic, telling CNBC on Wednesday he wouldn't be surprised if America's economy grew by 3% over the next two years.

And yet, as even some Fed officials, and many market-watchers, had been pointing out of late, the US Treasury yield curve had been flattening and if the slope changed to negative or, in economists' jargon, 'inverted', might be sending a cautionary signal that it was the likes of El-Erian who were being too optimistic.

Forecasts of future US growth might also have significant implications for the pace of policy tightening by the Federal Reserve over the same time period.

In the UK meanwhile, traders and investors were likely to be closely monitoring the headlines around the Brexit negotiations, although many of the former at least were likely to be in a cautious mood after being wrong-footed by the ebb and flow of headlines over the previous few months.

Commenting on the current market backdrop, in a research note sent to clients on 5 October, analysts at Deutsche Bank said: "This week's inflation data take on added significance for a bond market that is already on edge following the largest one-week (as measured by a Friday-to-Friday close) rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since the 18 basis point (bp) sell off from January 26 to February 2. Indeed, last week's 17bp move in the 10-year yield was the 13th largest weekly move in either direction over the past five years."

On the corporate side of things meanwhile, specialist recruiter PageGroup was also among those scheduled to update investors.

Analysts at UBS expected the firm to post a 16% jump in like-for-like sales for its third quarter, identical to the second quarter, on the back of robust growth in Germany and France, while in the UK, LFLs were seen down by 2%.

"The company does not report profit numbers at this stage but we expect good leverage on the high-level of growth being delivered and generally see risks skewed to the upside for FY18 consensus."

Wednesday October 10

INTERIMS

Vertu Motors, Walker Greenbank

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd (Bermuda), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Bermuda), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Jersey), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Jersey REG), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Mandarin Oriental International (Bermuda), Mandarin Oriental International (Jersey), Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Pagegroup

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)

Q3

Pagegroup

FINALS

PRS Reit (The)

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Pagegroup

AGMS

Diverse Income Trust (The)

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Hollywood Bowl Group, Liontrust Asset Management, Marston's, Pagegroup, Scapa Group, Telford Homes, Vertu Motors, Whitbread

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (00:00)

Gross Domestic Product (09:30)

Index of Services (09:30)

Industrial Production (09:30)

Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)

Retail Sales (00:01)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Colefax Group