Tuesday preview: 1922 Committee, Ocado in focus

All eyes will be on the UK tomorrow with traders around the world likely to be busily scanning the headlines for any indication that pro-Brexit Tory MPs will try and oust the Prime Minister.

Indeed, at the time of writing, the 1922 Committee was set to meet on Monday evening and some reports indicated that 48 Conservative MPs had already indicated their willingness to launch a leadership contest.

On the flip-side, in remarks to LBC radio, the outgoing Brexit Secretary, David Davis, said the resignation of Boris Johnson, following his own, had not been coordinated and believed it unlikely it would trigger a confidence vote, which she would in any case likely win.

And what might happen if she did win? According to Berenberg's Kallum Pickering, "As long as Irish PM Leo Varadkar gives the nod, the rest of EU27 can probably agree to an augmented version of PM May's proposed free trade area in goods, in our view.

"If the UK insists on constraining the free movement of people, we do not see any realistic prospect of the EU extending such a free trade deal into services. In our base case of such a semi-soft Brexit, UK potential growth would fall to 1.5-1.7% from +2.0% inside the EU."

Pickering put the odds of what he termed a semi-soft Brexit at 60%.

For their part, analysts at TD Securities were talking of a 'medium-Brexit' but they thought that at this point in time any leadership vote would be "an un-coordinated" move.

According to the Tory party's rules, if a leadership vote fails, another cannot take place for 12 months.

Against that backdrop, investors were waiting on ONS's release of its first monthly estimate of UK gross domestic product, for May, at 0930 BST.

Data on industrial production and foreign trade referencing that same month were set for release in parallel.

Overnight meanwhile, investors were waiting on the release of Chinese consumer price data for June, alongside an estimate of factory-gate inflation.

Bank lending figures were also due out over the next five days, possibly as early as Tuesday.

On the corporate front, Ocado's latest set of interims would be in the spotlight, with investors' focus set to be on any further guidance around the company's Solutions division, Numis analyst Andrew Wade said, although he anticipated little new disclosure.

Nevertheless, Wade told clients: "We expect further deals [like the one with Kroger] to be signed over the medium term, and have little doubt that an attractive ROIC will be achieved on the huge amount of capital set to be invested across Ocado's global OSP partnerships."

Tuesday July 10

INTERIMS

Ocado Group, Polar Capital Global Financials Trust

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Hollywood Bowl Group

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

ZEW Survey - Current Situation (GER) (10:00)

ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (EU) (10:00)

ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (GER) (10:00)

GMS

Smith (DS)

FINALS

AdEPT Telecom, Begbies Traynor Group, Jaywing, Photo-Me International

AGMS

Assura , Marks & Spencer Group, Northern Investors Co, Plus500 Ltd (DI), Safe Harbour Holdings, Terra Capital, Wynnstay Properties, Young & Co's Brewery 'A' Shares

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Dechra Pharmaceuticals, ITE Group, Kier Group, Marks & Spencer Group, Robert Walters, Young & Co's Brewery 'A' Shares, Young & Co's Brewery (Non-Voting)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (09:30)

Industrial Production (09:30)

Manufacturing Production (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

NMC Health