Thursday preview: Weather a factor in Kingfisher results, ONS retail sales

Thursday's official UK retail sales data will come after results from DIY retailer Kingfisher, with better weather expected to be a factor for both.

Back in the first quarter, B&Q and Screwfix owner Kingfisher was hammered by the beastly snow in February and March, with like-for-like sales down 4%.

But chief executive Véronique Laury was still confident about her turnaround plans for the retail giant, as she aims to more closely unify the product range across UK and European store chains.

If excluding outdoor products, sales of the unified ranges were up in the first three months of the year and the Frenchwoman said she expected full year group gross margin to grow, after clearance costs.

While delivering the trading update in May, Laury admitted market conditions continued to be mixed, with the UK is "uncertain", France "encouraging, but volatile" but Poland "supportive".

UBS analysts forecast second quarter group like-for-like sales to grow 1.2%.

"The main swing is likely to be seen at B&Q, where the -9% in Q1 included a 6% weather impact. If we allow for this, the change in comps, and the exceptionally warm weather in Q2, B&Q LFL could be circa 2.5%.

Competitors have indicated weakness in the DIY market, but UBS sees this as likely to have been more than offset by the growth in seasonal products, with the same trends, albeit more subdued, potentially seen in France.

"Stronger seasonal sales could also help gross margin and stock levels, the latter being a concern at the last full year."

Taking a wider view, the Office of National Statistics will publish official retail sales data at 0930 BST.

UK retail sales fell back in June, despite help from good weather, with high street companies reporting that while the UK spent more on food and drink, the World Cup proved a distraction from the important business of shopping. The average economist forecast is for a 0.2% month-on-month bounce in sales, leading to yearly growth picking up to 3.0% from 2.9%.

Three month figures to June still showed volumes by a strong 2.1%.

A recent survey from the British Retail Consortium showed a rebound of 0.5% in July's like-for-like sales.

For July, economists at RBC Capital Markets see a further fall back, given the high base and the fact that consumer confidence dropped to -10 last month.

Pantheon Macroeconomics see retail sales volumes rising 0.5% month-to-month in July, exactly reversing June's dip. though

"Overall, the hot weather and the World Cup appear to have had a neutral impact, hitting non-food sales but supporting food spending. The BRC's survey is consistent with slightly weaker growth than 0.5%, but it covers imperfectly the 'other store' sector, which includes chemists, bookshops and specialised stores."

Another factor for Thursday's trading will be that plenty of companies are going ex-dividend, including Anglo American, Aviva, Domino's Pizza Group, Ibstock, various Jardine companies, Lancashire, Legal & General, Lloyds, Merlin Entertainments, Millennium & Copthorne, Pearson, Reckitt Benckiser, RSA, Schroders, Segro, Standard Life Aberdeen and TI Fluid.

Thursday August 16

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)
Building Permits (US) (13:30)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Housing Starts (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Retail Sales (09:30)

FINALS

Filtronic, Rank Group

INTERIMS

Allied Minds , Bank of Georgia Group, CableVision Holdings, Capital Drilling, Kaz Minerals, Tribal Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Kingfisher

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Lindsell Train Inv Trust, London & Associated Properties, Severfield

AGMS

Sequoia Economic Infrastructure Income Fund Limited

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Aberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust, Ashtead Group, FIH Group , Iomart Group, Lindsell Train Inv Trust, London & Associated Properties, Quiz, Severfield

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Treatt

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Anglo American, Aviva, Contour Global , Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd (Bermuda), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Domino's Pizza Group, Henderson Opportunities Trust, Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Bermuda), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Jersey), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Ibstock , Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Jersey REG), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Lancashire Holdings Limited, Legal & General Group, Lloyds Banking Group, Low & Bonar, Mandarin Oriental International (Bermuda), Mandarin Oriental International (Jersey), Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Merlin Entertainments , Millennium & Copthorne Hotels, North Midland Construction, Pearson, Quartix Holdings , Reckitt Benckiser Group, RSA Ins 7 3/8%pf, Schroders, Schroders (Non-Voting), SEGRO, Standard Life Aberdeen, Synectics, TI Fluid Systems, Vivo Energy

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Civitas Social Housing , Civitas Social Housing C Shs, ICG Enterprise Trust, MedicX Fund Ltd., Raven Property Group Limited Cum Red Pref, RM Secured Direct Lending, The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited