Thursday preview: EU 27 summit, UK retail sales, Unilever update

On Thursday the European Union's main Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, will update EU 27 leaders on the current state of negotiations, while other financial diary items include UK retail data and results from Unilever.

Theresa May was reported to have asked to address fellow EU leaders at the summit in Brussels as she tries to break the "disturbing deadlock" in Brexit talks Barnier described last week.

The EU 27 are not intending to negotiate with May but will discuss Brexit after the Prime Minister leaves the following day.

Reuters reported that the group plan to reject May's call for an immediate start to talks on a future trade relationship but will make a “gesture” by telling EU staff to prepare for talks on a transition period.

A raft of Chinese data is also due to be published on Thursday, including on third quarter GDP, fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales; while central banks in South Korea, Indonesia and Israel are expected to decided on interest rates; in Australia labour market data will be in focus.

After a poor start to the year, UK retail sales have been on the rise lately, climbing by 1.7% in total since May.

"This may reflect some pent-up demand after the weakness in spending in the preceding months," said HSBC, but noting that consumer confidence remains subdued and inflation also remains on the up.

"Against this backdrop, we see a small fall back in volumes sold in September."

The consensus is for month-on-month sales excluding fuel to soften to 0.1% for September after the 1.0% increase in August.

Year on year, sales growth is seen easing to 2.4% from 2.8%.

COMPANY RESULTS

Unilever is due to report third quarter sales, following interim results in July that were stronger than expected and saw the consumer goods behemoth increase full year guidance.

Chief executive Paul Polman, of whom investors expect a lot after he deflected a $143bn offer from Kraft Heinz in February, has stepped up the intensity of his restructuring programme this year and is expecting another year of underlying sales growth ahead of markets, in the 3-5% range.

A sale or de-merger of the spreads business is edging closer, with a deadline for bids reported to coincide with results, following the announcement of the sale of South Africa Spreads in September.

Earlier this month, Unilever launched a €450m buyback of its Dutch preference shares as part of new measures to simplify its corporate structure, with more detail of the board's plans expected alongside results.

The City analyst consensus is for like-for-like growth to accelerate to 3.9% from 3.0% in the first half.

Deutsche Bank expected LFL growth of 4.0%, helped by easier year-on-year comparisons. "Importantly, after five quarters of mostly price-driven LFL growth, we expect a return of volumes and a better balance between price and volume."

Analysts at UBS was not feeling as bullish, due to weaker than expected US consumer demand, headwinds in ice-cream from tough comparatives in Europe and new entrant Halo Top taking share in the US, together with downtrading in Brazil.

Jefferies' mood on the sector was more upbeat, with growth "expected to accelerate, for the first time in a while, in the context of a slightly less stretched fundamentals". Key themes for Unilever's third quarter should be "i) whether there are signs of life in Brazil ii.) evidence of an improved trajectory in India following GST changes and iii.) signs of broader recovery in Asia," with analysts also hopeful for an update on progress of the spreads divestment.

Builders' merchant Travis Perkins is also due to reveal its third-quarter progress, with LFL sales expected to ease off from the 2.7% in the second quarter and the full year consensus looking for EBITA of £385-390m.

UBS was expecting group LFL sales growth of 1.4%, with General Merchanting down 0.5%, Contracts up 6%, Plumbing & Heating down 2.4% and consumer up 3.3%.

"We expect slight volume declines with the growth driven entirely by price inflation."

London Stock Exchange Group is another in the Q3 update posse, likely to cover revenues by business segment as well the firm's key performance indicators.

UBS was expecting quarterly revenues up 15% to £433.8m, which is flat on the second quarter, with total income including treasury and other income of almost £482m.

Third quarterly updates from Schroders are usually very short, only containing an update on asset under management as the company has stopped reporting flows and profit before tax on a quarterly basis.

Barclays was forecasting £417bn of AUM and £1.6bn under administration to total £428bn of assets under management and administration, which is an increase of 2.4% in the quarter.

Senior’s trading statement is also expected to be short, providing commentary on revenue growth, profit and cash flow as well as the net debt figure for the period.

Barclays expected improved revenue growth driven in Aerospace by the H2 weighting of deliveries at the OEMs and in Flexonics by the improvement in markets such as North American trucks which was still in decline in H1.

"Improved margin as cost reduction continues on new programmes in Aerospace and the £4m of costs associated with achieving £4m of savings was more H1 weighted.

Segro is expected to provide an upbeat statement, said UBS, given the structural tailwinds driving warehouse demand across Europe.

"There will be no NAV or EPS published. We look for an update on letting rates and development activity."

Thursday October 19

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (13:30)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Retail Sales (09:30)

FINALS
Tristel

INTERIMS
Stobart Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
London Stock Exchange Group, Schroders, SEGRO, Senior, Travis Perkins, Unilever

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
ProVen Growth & Income VCT, ProVen VCT

AGMS
BHP Billiton, PCI-PAL, Rank Group

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Joules Group, Oxford Instruments

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Fidelity Asian Values, Henderson EuroTrust, Smiths Group, Wilmington

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd (Bermuda), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Duke Royalty Limited, Gamma Communications, GVC Holdings, Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Jersey REG), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Mandarin Oriental International (Bermuda), Mandarin Oriental International (Jersey), Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), TT Electronics

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Action Hotels, Amati Vct 2, BAE Systems, Burford Capital , Capita, Harvey Nash Group, Howden Joinery Group, ICG Enterprise Trust, Intu Properties, M. P. Evans Group, Marshalls, Mears Group, Menzies(John), Senior, Smart Metering Systems, Stilo International, Ted Baker, Walker Greenbank, Witan Pacific Inv Trust, Zegona Communications

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Fair Oaks Income Limited 2014 Shs NPV, Fair Oaks Income Limited 2017 Shs NPV

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
City of London Inv Trust