Friday preview: Major US data due - but Fed looking further forward

There's little on the London corporate calendar ahead of the long weekend, with two big data releases Stateside in the form of revised first quarter gross domestic product and durable goods orders - both offering the potential to move markets if they deviate much from forecasts.

The market expects US GDP growth to be revised up to 0.9% at an annualised rate, from the initial release of 0.7%. The release is due at 1330 BST.

Barclays economists felt 0.8% was a more likely number and following visible good trade data on Thursday, in the shape of the advance goods trade report, that came out worse than expected, it said the second quarter had tracked down to 2.0% quarter on quarter, from 2.5% at the time of the Q1 print.

Whether or not it matters much is another question, after the Federal Reserve said after their May meeting that they viewed the slowing in growth during the first quarter "as likely to be transitory" and that they were confident economic activity will "expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term."

In other words, "they don't care" about the first quarter any more, said Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Either way, he saw growth being revised up to 1.1% from 0.7%, thanks to stronger retail sales, construction and inventory numbers than initially believed.

April's durable goods orders are due at the same time. The headline number was +1.7% for March, or +0.8% excluding transportation, with the consensus forecasts for total orders to be -1.8%, with the ex-
transportation number up 0.4%.

HSBC forecast durable goods orders fell 1.6% in April, reflecting a steep decline in aircraft orders. Excluding transportation equipment, the bank's economists forecast that durable goods orders rose 0.5%.

Capital Economics estimated that headline durable goods orders declined by 0.7% month-on-month in April, as a drop in transport orders more than offset a rise in core orders, with Boeing receiving orders for just 15 planes last month compared to 147 the previous month.

"It is likely that was offset in part by a small rebound in motor vehicle orders, in line with the uptick in vehicle production last month."

Excluding transport, the survey evidence suggests that new orders are still expanding, albeit at a slower rate than in recent months.

Capital pencilled in a 0.5% m/m rise in core orders, which would be consistent with the 3m/3m rate slowing a little in April.

Friday May 26

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
U. of Michigan Confidence (US) (15:00)

FINALS
Volvere

INTERIMS
MedicX Fund Ltd.

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENT
Intertek Group, Restaurant Group

ANNUAL REPORT
Scottish Mortgage Inv Trust

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Elementis, EP Global Opportunities Trust, esure Group, Volga Gas

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust, British Smaller Companies VCT, Swallowfield

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Primary Health Properties, SQN Secured Income Fund

GMS
Lebanese Co for the Development & Reconstruction of Beirut Central District SAL GDS (Reg S)

EGMS
PJSC Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port GDR (Reg S)

AGMS
4D Pharma , Access Intelligence, Circassia Pharmaceuticals, Escher Group Holdings, Informa, Intertek Group, Restaurant Group, Rotala, Spectris, Spire Healthcare Group

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Antofagasta, Cello Group, Cenkos Securities, Centaur Media, Charles Taylor, Communisis, Dunedin Income Growth Inv Trust, Ebiquity, Elementis, EP Global Opportunities Trust, esure Group, Fevertree Drinks, Frenkel Topping Group, Fresnillo, Greggs, Inmarsat, IWG , JRP Group, Marshall Motor Holdings, Maven Income & Growth 4 VCT, Maven Income & Growth VCT, Microgen, Morgan Advanced Materials , Polymetal International, Randgold Resources Ltd., Senior, Servelec Group , SimiGon Ltd. (DI), Spirax-Sarco Engineering, StatPro Group, Stock Spirits Group , Total Produce, Travis Perkins, Volga Gas