OPEC sees price falls curbing US shale oil industry

Speaking from the London Oil&Money conference OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri signalled the cartel does not have the intention of cutting its output anytime soon.

OPEC also seems to expect that the decline in prices will force the US shale oil industry to reduce its pace of investments and output, which will eventually lead to a more balanced market.

“I don’t think 2015 will be far away from 2014 in terms of production,” el—Badri remarked.

Following recent oil price declines, calls from some OPEC members, especially from outside of the Persian Gulf region, for a cut in the cartel’s levels of output, have been growing louder, meaning that the political dynamics within the organisation are increasingly confrontational.

Nevertheless, OPEC’s chief said the current drop in prices did not reflect market fundamentals, adding that he wasn’t “unduly concerned”.

As well, some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, it is thought, are trying to defend their market share, especially in Asia.

“Don’t panic. I am sure the market will balance itself,” the Secretary General added.

Interestingly, he also told his audience that “at this [current] price, 50% of tight oil will be out of the market.” Some observers have speculated that the recent decline in prices is part of a strategy to undermine the US shale oil industry. Nevertheless, some observers point out that in reality OPEC, or some producers, may not have much choice anyhow, as their pricing power declines as a result of increased US production.

Indeed, that opinion is also held by Goldman Sachs, who on 24 October argued that “Saudi will not cut production meaningfully until they see evidence of a strong capex cut from the US E&Ps” with slower production following in about six months afterwards. The market, Goldman explains, is transitioning towards a new structure which they dub “dominant firm/competitive fringe”.

The oil price at which US firms would lower their capital expenditures is $75 per barrel, the broker estimated.

In fact, it sees West Texas oil falling as low as $70 per barrel in the second quarter of 2015, as events play themselves out.

Many of the attendees at the conference, however, reportedly disputed that calculation, with one US oil industry executive claiming that prices would need to fall as far as $50 per barrel.

In any case, and as BP chief executive Bill Dudley remarked, lower oil prices were making themselves felt in the stand-off between Russia and the West over Ukraine.