UBS upgrades Esure to 'neutral' after Bain deal

UBS upgraded Esure to 'neutral' from 'sell' and hiked the price target to 280p after the insurer agreed to be bought by private equity firm Bain Capital for 280p a share, as it said there is a high probability of deal success.

The bank pointed to the fact that the deal has support from key shareholders controlling nearly 48% of the shares and said there is limited scope for a counter-bid, give an implied 14x 2019E earnings per share valuation, which is at the upper end of the peer group. In addition, it noted limited anti-trust concerns as this appears to be Bain's first investment in the UK insurance market.

Should 75% of shareholders be supportive, UBS estimated that the deal could be finalised by early December 2018. If the transaction receives 50-75% support, which it views as unlikely given the support of key shareholders, it would expect completion early January.

UBS said Esure's first-half results, which were announced alongside the Bain deal, were weaker than expected, with pre-tax profit 8% below consensus, mostly due to weather losses. However, it said the positive for the market was that as prices slowed, Esure slowed growth somewhat, maintaining a relatively stable gross motor premium year-on-year despite claims deflation.

"Esure, like peers, has flagged that the market has maintained its discipline. This, along with an expected return to more "normal" claims inflation (3- 5%) towards the end of this year (as reported by Hastings and Direct Line), combined with delays to whiplash reform, should lead to a more stable pricing backdrop."