Jefferies hoists target prices for housebuilding sector

Jefferies has upgraded house builders Barratt Developments, Berkeley and Galliford Try due to the UK's continued housing shortage outweighing other concerns.

The broker said it believes the government's 100,000-a-year target is not achievable with current construction skills shortages, which will prevent the industry from getting anywhere near the 165,000 extra building workers to achieve this.

Across the housebuilding sector Jefferies upgraded share price targets by an average of 18% on the companies' high visibility of cashflows, strong forward order books and ever increasing support for the sector from government.

"We believe that scarcity of supply of homes, mortgages and potential Bank Rate rises will favour the Help to Buy assisted new build market and raise the prospects of upgrades during 2016," it said.

Barratt, Berkeley and Galliford Try are all upgraded to 'buy' from 'hold', with investors looking for yield recommended to consider Barratt, Berkeley and Taylor Wimpey, while those seeking growth choosing Bovis, McCarthy & Stone and Redrow.

The top picks for investors looking for both yield and growth are Crest Nicholson and Galliford Try.

Jefferies upgraded Berkeley, with a target price now at 4,650p, due to the company's increased guidance and its bigger and faster capital return plan.

"Upgrades at Barratt and Galliford reflect the interplay between our valuation methodology and Jefferies recommendation structure, rather than changes to estimates."

Barratt's new target price was moved to 807p and Galliford to 1,950p.

The main risks to forecasts, clearly, were potential reductions in UK house prices, mortgage availability or material changes to the supply chain.