Broker tips: United Utilities, Prudential, service sector

United Utilities got a boost on Thursday as Societe Generale upgraded the stock to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’, noting that recent share price weakness now implies a total shareholder return of 18%.

The stock has underperformed the FTSE 100 by 11% since the 2 October Tory Party conference.

SocGen said European regulated utilities have suffered recently on the back of the “taper tantrum” from press comments regarding the European Central Bank’s bond-buying programme and sterling weakness resulting from comments at the Tory Party Conference.

During this time, UU has been the worst performer among UK utilities despite the benefit which should accrue from higher inflation, it said.

“While nominal gilt yields have recently risen (+25 basis points), they remain 40bp below pre-Brexit levels, and inflation expectations have picked up,” SocGen said.

“We estimate the effect of higher inflation is equivalent to 1-2% per annum on the UU equity value for every 100 basis points of higher than expected RPI, and therefore on an absolute basis higher inflation and lower real gilt yields should be viewed as value accretive.”

Prudential shares fell on Thursday as Societe Generale lowered its rating on the stock to ‘sell’ from ‘hold’ and cut its target price to 1,250p from 1,400p.

Societe Generale said Prudential is on its list of least preferred stocks as it believes its it most vulnerable to the “growing cocktail” of variable annuity risks.

“Not only are Pru’s future sales and earnings looking challenged, but also the back-book may come under pressure,” the broker said.

“Its hedging has been effective so far but has not been tested in a bear market.”

The financial services company reduced its earnings per share forecasts for fiscal years 2017 and 2018 by 3% and 4% respectively, due to lower estimates for variable annuity sales and profit margin.

Societe Generale also cut its dividend per share expectations by 5% for 2017 and 9% for 2018.

RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage of several stocks and changed its recommendations as it took a look at the business services sector.

The bank started Ashtead at ‘outperform’ with a 1,580p price target, saying it sees a robust US market, while the branch rollout and disciplined capital allocation should lead to above-average growth at an attractive valuation.

RBC initiated coverage of Johnson Service Group at ‘outperform’ with a 130p price target, saying good organic growth and the potential to consolidate more of the UK textile market should lead to strong growth. It added that the stock’s valuation is attractive and said it sees Johnson as a consolidation candidate in the medium term.

RBC Capital upgraded G4S to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’ and lifted the price target to 260p from 170p. It said it now sees value after the selloff in the shares and noted the company’s low UK exposure.

It downgraded Intertek to ‘underperform’ from ‘sector perform’ and kept the price target at 3,400p, saying the stock was up with events and a pause for breath is due. RBC noted the shares have outperformed the FTSE 100 by 32% in the last 12 months. “We like the structural growth characteristics, market position and the new CEO's strategy but feel relatively low organic growth and valuation are limiting factors to further short-term potential upside.”

It downgraded Mitie to ‘sector perform’ from ‘outperform’ and slashed the price target to 195p from 310p. It said trading was likely to remain tough through 2017 and 2018, the balance sheet is increasingly stretched and there are few catalysts on the horizon.

RBC cut Rentokil to ‘outperform’ from ‘top pick’ after the strong run in the stock, but lifted the price target to 260p from 240p. “Whilst the stock has performed well, we see earnings risk on the upside and improving mix should continue to provide scope for further rerating. M&A optionality is arguably in the share price for free.” However, RBC said Rentokil remains its favoured larger cap defensive in the sector.

It changed its recommendation on Travis Perkinsto ‘sector perform’ from ‘outperform’ and cut the target to 1,450p from 2,000p, pointing to tougher times ahead. “We are fans of what Travis is doing re stamping its scale advantages on the market. However, investment is still going in when markets are more uncertain. With some leading indicators rolling over and Brexit uncertainty likely to remain, we see forecast uncertainty given the inherent leverage in the business.”

Finally, the bank downgraded WS Atkins to ‘sector perform’ from ‘outperform’, moving the target to 1,500p from 1,400p.
RBC said the stock has performed well, outperforming the FTSE 100 by 11% in the last three months, but trading is still tough in some areas. “Whilst multiples are undemanding, we believe we need to see genuine organic growth improvements to see a further re-rating.”