Broker tips: National Express, Spectris, Shell

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity slashed their target price on shares of coach and rail operator National Express.

However, they stood by their 'buy' recommendation for the stock, pointing to the group's "strong" customer relationships and historically best-in-class margins in all its businesses to back up their investment thesis, labelling the firm a "quality operator".

Neither did it have any liquidity concerns, putting it in a good position to weather the storm and the significant follow-on impact to earnings in the near-term.

Even so, with divisional revenue growth set to slow to 0-1.5%, its target price based on discounted cash flows came down from 425.0p to 255.0p.

The firm's margings were also seen falling below their historical levels and the analysts assigned the company's so-called 'terminal growth' zero value.

"While the decent level of revenue support across the group is positive, it is unlikely to prevent the group from reporting an adjusted operating and pre-tax loss for the full year, the broker said.

Analysts at Berenberg raised their target price on precision instrumentation supplier Spectris from 2,240.0p to 2,425.0p on Tuesday, citing the group's strong balance sheet.

Spectris has one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector and should finish the year with circa £75.0m net cash. With M&A increasing across the sector and share prices generally reacting positively to deals, we see this is a key upside catalyst should cash be deployed effectively," said Berenberg.

"Likewise, any divestments (eg Millbrook) to improve the portfolio mix could also be taken well, as could an easing of US trade tensions under a Democratic presidency. We do, however, look for further evidence that the group’s self-help savings can translate into higher margins."

Berenberg said it upgraded Spectris to 'hold' back in March on the grounds that its more diversified business model, net cash balance sheet and portfolio reshaping optionality would stand it "in good stead" against the challenging backdrop.

In one sense, the German bank said it was right, with shares broadly flat since. However, it also pointed out that trading had been "less resilient" than it had expected.

"As a result, with near-term risks remaining elevated and shares trading at a premium to recent history, we believe it is still too early to turn buyers, despite several medium-term attractions," said the analysts.

Morgan Stanley upgraded its recommendation for shares of Shell from 'equalweight' to 'overweight', telling clients that the oil major's new distribution policy revealed insiders confidence in the firm's ability to throw off cash.

"With a dividend yield of 5.4% and new guidance for annual dividend growth of 4%, Shell shares offer a steady-state total return of ~9.4% per year," they argued.

Projections for 4% annual growth were likely feasible, a 9.4% rate of return was higher than its cost of capital and its dividend yield might compress, and in so doing front-load some of those future returns.

All in all, they also bumped up their target price from 991.0p to 1,180.0p, adding that like sector peer Total's, shares now offered more than 20% potential upside.