PM May faces 'Celtic Spring' of independence calls as Brexit process begins

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Sharecast News | 14 Mar, 2017

Updated : 14:02

Prime Minister Theresa May is staring down a so-called 'Celtic Spring' of independence calls that threatens to destabilise UK politics and the strength of her EU bargaining arsenal as the controversial Brexit Bill passes into law.

The Bill -- after May's intended use of Royal Prerogative failed in court -- drew renewed and separate calls on Monday for both Scotland and Northern Ireland to quit the UK.

Yet on Tuesday May's Bill neared Royal Assent, a necessary step for it becoming legislation, which would give her the legal basis for enacting Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start the two-year UK-EU divorce talks.

The PM told the Commons on Tuesday that the Bill will get royal assent "in the coming days" and that she will return to the Commons when that happens.

"The UK is doing its best to fill the void at the start of the week with the House of Lords late last night passing the Brexit bill in its original form after parliament rejected its two previous amendments," said Oanda senior market analyst Craig Erlam.

He said May was expected to enact Article 50 later this month, the PM having on Monday reportedly delayed that action beyond this week.

"The pound has taken another hit today after the events of Monday evening, with the loss of the vote on the final deal in parliament possibly being seen as increasing the possibility of a hard Brexit," Erlam added.

IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said sterling's sharp drop on Tuesday came as the market awoke to the impending activation of Article 50.

This, he said, was "coupled with the weary realisation that long and trying Scottish referendum battle will be run almost in parallel with the UK's Brexit negotiations."

Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, planned to convene another independence referendum between autumn 2018 and spring 2019, kick-starting the long-winded process with a poll next week.

"Doing nothing at this stage -- in many ways is the easiest thing -- would mean letting Scotland drift through the next two year(s) simply hoping for the best," said Sturgeon on Monday.

"The Scottish government's mandate for offering this choice (of a second independence referendum) is beyond doubt," she said.

Scotland, as with Northern Ireland, voted against Brexit in late June last year, but the EU separation referendum found traction in England and Wales and this clinched the overall outcome.

Also on Monday, Sinn Fein stated it wanted a referendum as soon as possible on splitting Northern Ireland from the UK.

Since the referendum, Sinn Fein, the largest Irish nationalist party, has regularly called for a vote that would see Northern Ireland leave the UK and re-unite with the Republic of Ireland.

These latest twists -- potentially viewed as akin to a 'Celtic Spring', referring only to the latest developments in Scotland and Northern Ireland -- were the direct result of UK's Brexit ballot.

The outcome of that vote has polarised the country, while sterling has plunged and inflation has risen.

The prospect of a so-called hard Brexit potentially damaging to the UK economy in both the short and long terms has sent fears rippling through business, political and community circles, regardless of political allegiance.

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