Futura Medical points to £1bn potential annual erectile gel sales

Futura Medical has commissioned market research that has suggested gel treatment for erectile dysfunction has potential to be sold as an over-the-counter product, with potential peak sales of more than $650m a year.

Ipsos came to the valuation based on primary market research carried out amongst 400 men with erectile dysfunction or suspected erectile dysfunction in the USA.

Futura expects to begin Phase III trials later this year of the standard and increased strength dosage forms of the gel, currently called MED2002, in at least 700 patients, subject to confirmation from regulatory authorities.

The AIM-listed company remains in talks about out-licensing the product.

Ipsos's healthcare forecasting model has been demonstrated by Ipsos to be within 20% of actual sales volumes in nine out of 10 of its forecasts.

In a market where Viagra is a dominant brand, the key findings of the Ipsos research showed that the respondents believed that the product is highly differentiated from existing products and that its claims would meet their needs.

"MED2002's rapid onset of action, an average of less than five minutes, was the key feature that attracted respondents to the product and could command a price premium compared with existing ED treatments, which have a substantially slower onset of action."

The Ipsos forecast comes on top of earlier market research that estimated the product would have a prescription market size of up to US$600m in key countries worldwide.

Ipsos forecasts that 70% of OTC product sales will be incremental to the prescription ED category, putting the combined estimates for MED2002's peak annual sales at more than $1bn.

Chief executive James Barder said: "Our belief is that the standard dosage form could be switched, at an appropriate time, from a prescription to an over-the-counter medicine. The Ipsos market research has focused on the potential of MED2002 as an over-the-counter medicine."