LONDON (SHARECAST) - This is a review of the elements likely to affect foreign exchange (forex) trading in the European session:
QE3 - Third phase of quantitative easing
ECB - European Central Bank; BOE - Bank of England; RBA - Reserve Bank of Australia; Basis point - one-hundredth of a percentage point
Cable: Sterling/US dollar
Currency codes: EUR - euro; USD - US dollar; GBP - sterling; JPY - Japanese yen; CHF - Swiss franc; NOK - Norwegian kroner; SEK - Swedish kroner; CAD - Canadian dollar (the loonie); AUD - Australian dollar; NZD - New Zealand dollar
IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper Global Slump - Bloomberg
Greece confounds Eurozone, Spain not seen seeking bailout - Reuters
Europe Salutes Greek Budget-Cutting Will, Raising Aid Prospects - Bloomberg
Eurozone launches €500bn rescue fund - FT
McKinsey casts gloomy eye on world banking - Reuters
US Downgrade Seen as Upgrade as US Debt Dissolved - Bloomberg
Romney casts Obama's foreign policy as weak, dangerous - Reuters
Half of Wall Street Employees Expect Bigger Bonuses - Bloomberg
Most-Accurate Forecasters Say Dollar Beats QE3 - Bloomberg
IMF Reduces Latin American Growth Forecast on Global Downturn - Bloomberg
Victory Tightens Chávez Grip on Power - WSJ
Asian Stocks Rise as China Stimulus Hopes Offset IMF Cut - Bloomberg
China Housing Prices Rise - WSJ
Chinese Tech Firms Pose Spy Threat - CNBC
Yen Drops as China Stimulus Bets Sap Demand for Haven - Bloomberg
Japan-South Korea Currency Swap to Lapse Amid Tensions - Bloomberg
Japan Current-Account Surplus Rises First Time in 18 Months - Bloomberg
India’s GDP Growth to Drop to Lowest in a Decade, IMF Says - Bloomberg
Inflation Bonds May Ease Singapore Price Pinch - Bloomberg
Philippines awaits pay-off from peace deal - FT
N. Korea: Long-Range Rockets Can Hit Continental US - Bloomberg
Sharp Falls to Lowest Since 1974 on Goldman Cut - Bloomberg
ECB May Need to Cut Rates Given Deflation Risk, IMF Says - Bloomberg
Rajoy’s Deepening Budget Black Hole Outpaces Spain Deficit Cuts - Bloomberg
Spain Foreclosures Spread to Once Wealthy - Bloomberg
Athens Preparing for Anti-Austerity Protests Aimed at Merkel - Bloomberg
Merkel bears no gifts on Greek visit - FT
Greece Praised as EU Ministers Meet in Luxembourg - Bloomberg
Osborne Faces Shrinking BOE Pool as O’Neill Withdraws - Bloomberg
Economic storms start to rock Nordic havens - FT
EADS, BAE Said to Plan Request for Extra Time to Salvage Merger - Bloomberg
Investor opposition to BAE deal mounts - FT
EUR: The euro cross-rates move forward across the board after yesterday’s well deserved pause and despite gloomy figures from the latest IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The markets seem to be focusing in the upbeat tone that came from the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg. Greece’s budget-cutting measures and Spain not asking for a bailout are the main headlines. Today in Europe, we have the EcoFin meeting and few data points. EUR-USD hedges up towards 1.30 after the false breakthrough of the 1.2950 support zone. EUR-JPY moves up but below 102.
GBP: The sterling crosses recover after yesterday’s deep loses. Cable trades below 1.6050 while GBP-JPY is close to 125.70. EUR-GBP has tested the 0.8100 level. Industrial production numbers in the UK could have some sort of impact on sterling.
CHF: The Swiss franc shows signs of weakness. Overnight the EUR-CHF cross-rate has drafted a bullish flag pattern. The 1.2150 resistance zone could be hit soon. Meanwhile, USD-CHF is capped by the 0.9350 resistance. Recent deflationary figures in Switzerland could help the SNB to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary stance.
Nordics: The Swedish krona and the Norwegian kroner continue to be red tainted. Recent economic performance of Nordic countries shows that they are feeling the slowdown of their European peers. EUR-SEK is still trading close to 8.60 and EUR-NOK to 7.40.
USD & JPY: The US dollar and the Japanese yen are still in demand in a risk-on context. Today there is a data-shy calendar in the US. The presidential campaign is still focused on the economy. USD-JPY trades sideways close to 78.30.
CAD, AUD & NZD: The three dollars suffer mild losses in a risk averse situation. Despite the RBA interest-rate cut AUD-USD is stuck close to 1.02. Macroeconomic figures in China and Australia are set to be the main drivers of this asset in the near future.