LONDON (SHARECAST) - This is a review of the elements likely to affect foreign exchange (forex) trading in the European session:
Main headlinesIMF Won’t Disburse Greek Loan If Debt Not Sustainable- Bloomberg
Draghi: Next Move Not His as Spain Resists Bailout- Bloomberg
BOJ Refrains From More Stimulus as Political Pressure Mounts- Bloomberg
Obama vulnerable to looming jobless report - Reuters
Forex trading on EBS hits September low - FT
Americas wrap-upJobless Rate Probably Climbed as US Employers Limited Hiring- Bloomberg
US factory orders drop 5.2% - FT
Fed May Set Targets for Jobs, Inflation: Minutes - CNBC
Fed Signals Move Toward Thresholds for Keeping Stimulus- Bloomberg
Bullard Says Investors Doubt Fed to Hold Inflation to 2%- Bloomberg
Consumer Confidence in US Climbs for a Sixth Week- Bloomberg
Romney Puts Race Against Obama Back on Track in Debate- Bloomberg
Google ebook win little threat to Amazon - FT
Facebook expands to 1 billion users - FT
Morgan Stanley chief warns on Wall Street pay - FT
Faber, Rogers on Why They're Bearish on US Stocks - CNBC
Female Advisers Now Manage More Money Than Men - CNBC
Asia-Pacific summaryAsian Stocks Rise With Region’s Currencies as Gold, Yen Advance- Bloomberg
Yen Rallies From 2-Week Low as BOJ Holds Asset Purchases- Bloomberg
Toyota China sales tumble as islands row hits Japan Inc - FT
Mazda hit by anti-Japan protests in China - FT
Hong Kong Luxury Sales Fall as Chinese Curb Spending- Bloomberg
Australian Mining’s Demise ‘Greatly Exaggerated’: Parkinson- Bloomberg
Top Forecasters See Aussie Gains as Rates Cut- Bloomberg
India Eases Limits on Investment - WSJ
Vietnam Shifts Focus from Inflation to Banking Cleanup- Bloomberg
Samsung Quarterly Profit Beats Estimates on Galaxy Phones- Bloomberg
Samsung operating profit up 85% - FT
RBS Suspends Trader Over Singapore Rate Rigging- Bloomberg
European newsEuro hits two-week high on ECB rate hold - FT
Draghi Says ECB Stands Ready to Start Buying Govt Bonds- Bloomberg
Spain Central Banker Warns on Budget - WSJ
EU Doubts on Deficit Cutting May Hinder Spain Bailout- Bloomberg
Spanish Bailout Is No Fix for Italy's Woes - WSJ
BOE Leaves Policy on Hold - WSJ
Cameron’s Plan to Revive U.K. Housing Hit by Regulations- Bloomberg
Russia Set to Pause on Rates as Inflation Breaches - Bloomberg
Russia moots Arctic oil licences for - FT
FOREX actionEUR: The main euro cross-rates continue to show renewed strength. In its monthly meeting the ECB decided yesterday to keep interest-rates at 0.75%. As expected, Spain was the main target at ECB President Draghi’s press conference in Slovenia. The ECB president underlined that the OMT programme is ready after the formal signature of ESM assistance. EUR-USD hit a two-week high at 1.30316 and is now trading a tad below 1.30. EUR-JPY is retracing a bit after reaching the 102 zone.
GBP: The sterling crosses are consolidating some of their recent gains. As thought, the BOE left its monetary policy stance on hold yesterday. We will have to wait to the MPC minutes to see how the gauge the need of further stimuli as the latest SMP round is coming to an end. The needle in the BOE compass is for the time being economic activity. They are doing their best to pull the economy from recessionary territory. Cable trades below the 1.6200 resistance while GBP-JPY retraces under 127.00. EUR-GBP is still holding above 0.8000.
CHF: We see some book squaring in the main Swiss franc cross-rates. EUR-CHF hedges up towards 1.2120 and USD-CHF trades close to 0.9320. Despite criticism on how the SNB is conducting its policy the 1.2000 Maginot line is still holding.
Nordics: The Swedish krona and the Norwegian kroner are poised to finish the week with a more neutral stance after recent losses during the week. EUR-SEK is moving close to the short-term support found at 8.6000. Meanwhile, EUR-NOK could rally to the 7.50 resistance in the near future.
USD: The US dollar is in a wait&see moment. Few venture to build positions in the greenback before the monthly employment report to be released today. Recent macroeconomic data is mixed but it holds a negative bias. The US jobless report will have political implications in the current presidential race. The latest FOMC minutes point to the Fed setting jobs and inflation targets.
JPY: The Japanese yen rallies from a two-week low versus the US dollar as the BOJ decided today to keep its interest-rate close to 0% and its asset purchase programme unchanged.
CAD, AUD & NZD: The three dollars firm a bit after their recent losses. This week the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut its interest-rate by 25 basic points to 3.25%. This relatively unexpected move is a drag on the Aussie dollar. Some pundits point to new rate cuts in the next few months due to the economic slowdown in Australia related to China’s hard landing.
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