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CATEGORY: FX

European session FX preview

By Francisco Miñana

Thu 23 Aug 2012

    Glossary
    Cable: Sterling/US dollar
    Currency codes: EUR - euro; USD - US dollar; GBP - sterling; JPY - Japanese yen; CHF - Swiss franc; NOK - Norwegian kroner; SEK - Swedish kroner; CAD - Canadian dollar (the loonie); AUD - Australian dollar; NZD - New Zealand dollar

European session FX preview LONDON (SHARECAST) - This is a preview of the issues expected to affect foreign exchange (FOREX) markets in Europe on Thursday.

Main headlines:

Fed Signals Readiness to Ease Without US Growth Pick-up - Bloomberg

China Veers 'Dangerously Close' to Hard Landing - CNBC

China Case for Stimulus Builds as Manufacturing Weakens - Bloomberg

Eurozone leaders delay Greece aid decision - FT

Brent nears $116 on Fed hopes, shrugs off China data - Reuters

South Africa Mine Protests Spread - WSJ

Gold hits highest since early May on Fed - Reuters

Americas wrap-up:

Dollar Drops Versus Majors as Fed Minutes Boost Prospects of Easing - Bloomberg

Many on FOMC Favoured Easing Soon if No Pick-up in Growth - Bloomberg

Fed’s Evans Urges Easing From US to China as Global Economic Risks Mount - Bloomberg

Home resales rise, housing recovery inches along - Reuters

Purchases of New Homes in US Probably Rebounded in July - Bloomberg

US CBO sees worse economic wreckage from "fiscal cliff" - Reuters

Chinese acquisitions in US near record - FT

Asia-Pacific summary:

Asian Stocks Rise as Gold Gains to 16-Week High on Easing Bets - Bloomberg

China factory sector shrinks most in 9 months - Reuters

Beijing Raises Rare-Earth Export Quota - WSJ

China Adds to Visa Demands in Move That Could Slow Tourists - Bloomberg

Australia’s Mining Bonanza Is Over: Resources Minister - Bloomberg

BHP Delays $68B of Projects After Profit Falls; BHP Delays Project Approvals - Bloomberg

Philippines' black market is China's golden connection - Reuters

European news:

Greece Faces New Pressure on Cuts - WSJ

Greek Crisis Evasion Comes to Fore as Merkel Meets With Hollande in Berlin - Bloomberg

Russia joins WTO after 19 years of talks - FT

S&P Says a Full Spain Bailout Would Not Affect Ratings - CNBC

French Leaders Return to Tackle Economy - WSJ

Austria's AAA Rating Under Attack From East and West - CNBC

Crisis Hits Swiss Machinery Sector - WSJ

Keynes, the hedge fund pioneer - FT

The Euro Is Already a ‘Zombie Currency’: Expert - CNBC

FOREX action

EUR: The main euro crosses are exhibiting mixed behaviour. EUR-USD has rallied past 1.2500 after doveish Fed Minutes left the door ajar for QE3. It is now trading close to 1.2570. FOMC members have signalled their readiness to ease due to US growth concerns. Meanwhile, EUR-JPY has eased towards 98.00, as we expected, after its recent spike.

GBP: The sterling crosses are shadowing moves in the euro. Cable is now above 1.5900, while GBP-JPY is trading below 125. EUR-GBP has firmed a bit and is trading above 0.7900. Tomorrow we will be paying close attention to the UK’s second estimate of second quarter (Q2) GDP.

CHF: The Swiss franc is rallying against the US dollar, buoyed by the recent appreciation in the euro. USD-CHF yesterday lost the 0.9650 threshold and is now trading close to 0.9560. Meanwhile, EUR-CHF is stuck in its familiar range close to 1.2010.

Nordics: The NOK and the SEK, much as other European currencies, are making gains versus the USD. Yet both Nordic currencies are also paring some of their recent gains against the euro as well. Eurozone debt crisis resolution hopes diminish their attractiveness as a haven.

USD & JPY: The dollar was heavily hit by Fed Minutes showing renewed prospects of Fed easing. The greenback has dipped versus its major counter-parties. USD-JPY yesterday drew a bearish flag pattern and is now trading close to 78.57.

CAD, AUD & NZD: The three dollars are rising against the dollar and the yen. The market seems to buy the case for Chinese monetary stimuli after weak manufacturing figures this morning. HSBC’s flash manufacturing PMI for July reached a 9-month low with new export orders declining at the sharpest rate since March 2009.


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